Markets: Genuine upswing or is this a dead cat bounce

Would be interested in opinions from anyone involved in this space as to their view of current market conditions. As an entity raising capital as we speak, and seemingly getting good feedback and have eveb signed up our corp advisers on a success fee basis, the has seemingly been a dramatic change of mood in the last few months. Aside from the obvious upswing in the global stock markets, sensitiment seems to have changed in the banks with a view to provision of corporate debt for expansion and in the VC market with a new willingness to consider early stage positions again..as I said wqould be interested in others opinions

Sorry about all the typos...on the run...

Reckon the fact that your advisers are willing to work pro bono is a good sign.

i think we are simplyt guilty of falling into the same trap as we did before.  Easy money, reliance on china, rose tinted spectacles.   The underlying economies are still in bad shape,  china is a law unto itself and global trade is in an extremely dubious shape.      wouldnt get holding the hot potato so short after a near armaggeddon.   financial market memories are so short.   but its all good till the music stops...

I don't underestimate the seriousness of the situation but was it really a near armaggedon or is that what just what the media led us to believe?

well  i think safe to say that 10 days with aig, lehmans,  etc etc     that was as close to financial armageddon as one would like to get.      i dont think it would have ended the world or anything like that  but the difference between a 3 yr recovery and a 20 year one wasnt far away.  The social-environment aspect would have been enormous,  with governments, ideologies and social unrest all working to create an entirely new global politic...  and history tells us how violent that can be

Late 08/early 09 global media was increasingly using the D-word (depression) rather than just the R-word. GD II was even touted... Great Depression II. However, the significant difference this time around in format of depression discussion says it all... compare to 1929/early-30s was 2 fold:                                                                                                       1) 2009 depression discussion was happening online in hyper speed-super efficient web word (new economies do work a bit differently to old ones... like it or not).
2) In the real world depression discussion was happening in Starbucks as people sipped on their 5 U.S. Dollar lattes - globally from New York to Shanghai... whereas in during the Great Depression they were discussing opionions while people actually fought for loaves of bread in the street in some parts of Europe.

Bottom line: comparisons early 1930s vs. 2009 are at best highly subjective.

Goodnight from Asia... now let's see if anyone from the U.S. markets has something to add overnight.

I think the sentiment has improved, but the data really hasn't.  I also thing too much is being red into the role of China recently, as it's hard to tell if they really increasing demand for raw materials (Baltic Dry index is falling again) or stocking up when prices were low.  I'm concerned that the Chinese stimulus just when into the stock market and the bubble is forming once again.  Oil seemed to think that way today.

SHANGHAI -- China's main stock index tumbled 5.8% Monday, leaving it down 16% for the month, even as economists say they see a solid foundation for growth in the world's No. 3 economy. The Shanghai index is still up 58% this year, making it one of the world's best-performing markets. Much of the recent drop stems from its outperformance this year compared with other markets. At one point earlier this month, the index was up 91% for the year.

Or is it too much liquidity chasing few equities?

From UK Telegraph

From Bloomberg

Interesting that Bloomberg link. Look forward to hearing what our Asia friends have to say about China ...

Interesting articles, thanks guys. I think in modern financial markets, especially when talking about global macro trends, stock market volatility and especially China related news flow... you have to decide whether you're analysing short/medium/long term trends. The differences between these time horrizons from an investment perspective are often extreme... especially short term that always has the most "casino" uncallable nature to it. Try calling U.S. Dow Jones moves overnight moves based on what Asia has done in the morning... often the U.S. goes exactly the opposite way. Red/black at a casino comes to mind. My point being that China in the next few weeks/months... who knows. 25% sell off from here on Shanghai into late summer and that historically cursed markets month of October... why not? Going forwards into mid 2010-2011 and the road to 2020 though I think is a very different case entirely. I'm convinced we are slap bang in the middle of a 21st Century Chinese Industrial Revolution together with a global communication and transparency revolution. The biggest Chinese corporate blue chips (or red chips as they are known) WILL profit massively from this environment in the coming years, as Shanghai is increasingly pricing into equities this year. Finally, to relate this all back to global analysis rather than just a Chinese one... although large Chinese corporates will increasingly profit from global exposure, not just domestic Chinese consumer demand... so too will the best American/European corporates increasingly profit from global exposure. Example: recent news extract from Apple...
Apple Beats Estimates on Sales of IPhone, New IPods
     Sales of iPhone handsets generated $2.2 billion last 
quarter, Oppenheimer said. The phone is now available in 81
countries, up from 6 a year ago.                        

*iPhone available in 81 countries, up from 6 in one year only* Just think about that stat for a moment.

Staying on the mobile phone topic and to part borrow the old UK Orange phone catch phrase "The future's bright, the future's Orange..." well I'd say the future's bright, the future's Global.

Still not sure what the Shanghai Composite does in the next few weeks though... but by 2020, who cares?

For sure the old communist heart of mainland China is still partly beating within the country's new found Dragon body...  State/corporate/consumer... with China it's hard to completely separate all 3, especially when you hear things like the Chinese government giving 50%+ discounts on some "white goods" to get people shopping in smaller cities (there are now over 90 cities in China with 1 million+ populations by the way) - at least 80 of these Cities non Chinese people have never heard of. This is all untapped demand that needs to be nurtured while in its infancy. Heavily government aided/funded/sponsored programmes to fire up consumer demand in its early stages... is that really a bad thing? Sometimes, just sometimes... a communist-capitalist hybrid... a yin-yang of perfect opposites if you like... can actually work.

Fair point with Russia comparison and corruption... thing is China seems to be moving overall in a more moderate direction, in some cases slowly, but at the same time learning from the mistakes of other countries. Point Russia: I read the boys in Beijing watched very closely as Russia basically switched off communism and switched on capitalism almost overnight in the late 80s early 90s... and the chaos that followed. China is also making considerable inroads into their massive corruption problem... this could be speeded up sure, but at least they realise things must be changed all the way up to top level. This is what can happen to even the most senior executives if found corrupt in modern China: witch-hunt maybe, but also warning shot to others. Things are changing - or at least China's PR is.

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Chen Tonghai, a former chairman of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s second-biggest oil company also known as Sinopec, has been given a suspended death penalty for bribery, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

hello

Hello

Unbelievable - that building photo.